Main season rainfall above average over most of Sudan
Key Messages
More than 4.4 million people are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity between July and September 2016, including more than 100,000 people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Current food insecurity is being driven by El Nino-related drought in 2015, exacerbated in South Kordofan, Blue Nile, and Darfur States by continued conflict that has caused displacement and disruptions to livelihoods and markets.
Rainfall between early June and late July has been above average over most surplus-producing areas of east and central Sudan. This rainfall has contributed to development of rainfed and irrigated crops and has generated sufficient pasture for animals in most areas. However, excessive rainfall has also caused severe flash floods, particularly in North Darfur, West Kordofan, South Kordofan, Blue Nile, Gazeira, Khartoum, and Kassala States. Floods in these areas have damaged houses, infrastructure and led to loss of life and productive assets.
Water levels in the Nile River and its branches have reached very high levels for this early point in the season, with levels at the Ed Diem monitoring point in the Blue Nile reaching alarming levels. This highlights the increased risk of flooding as heavy rains forecast in the Ethiopian and Eritrean highlands during the next few weeks are expected to flow downstream and may cause additional flooding.
Prices for staple cereals were seasonably stable between May and June across most reference markets, but remain much higher than normal (35 percent above June 2015, 44 percent above the five-year average, in the case of sorghum) as supply remains tight during the ongoing lean season. Prices for locally produced wheat also remained stable due to supply from the April/May harvest and sufficient availability of imported/subsidized wheat and wheat flour. Staple food prices will likely remain high until September 2016, when the near-farm harvest of 2016 is collected.
Refugees continue to flee South Sudan for Sudan, increasing food assistance needs. New arrivals include 7,000 refugees who fled conflict in Raja town, South Sudan in June for El Ferdous locality in East Darfur and about 5,745 refugees who have fled Unity State for West Kordofan since late June. The number of refugees from South Sudan is expected to increasing in the coming months.