In view of fighting in South Sudan, notably Juba, UNHCR has activated preparations to implement the inter-agency refugee contingency plan in Uganda.
Even if the ceasefire continues to hold, spikes in influx between 10 000-30 000 South Sudanese refugees are anticipated.
Currently the passage through the Elegu border appears to be closed on the South Sudan side. This poses the risk that those fleeing enter through other border points, where UNHCR is not present. If the Elegu passage opens there is a high risk of influxes with unprecedented arrival rates.
There are currently almost 540 000 refugees in Uganda, including 225 000 South Sudanese since the outbreak of the crisis at the end of 2013. Taking into account insecurity in the neighbouring countries of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), South Sudan and Burundi, it is expected that around 100 000 new refugees could reach Uganda by the end of 2016.