Executive Summary
UN and development partners, in collaboration with representatives of various national ministries, prepared this context analysis to better understand resilience to shocks that impact food insecurity and malnutrition in South Sudan. The analysis intends to support efforts by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Cooperatives and Rural Development (MAFCRD) to develop a framework for evidence-based resilience programming in South Sudan.
The study was undertaken between April and October 2015 by a technical team using multiple data sources, both quantitative and qualitative, which were complemented by inputs from government and partners. After an overall conceptual framework and methodology was adopted, an overview was prepared of the socioeconomic context of South Sudan, including the main livelihood systems and relevant political events, including the conflict that began in December 2013.
Key recent shocks and stressors affecting households and communities in the country were analysed, and trends in food insecurity and malnutrition examined against them. Using quantitative data from seasonal rounds of the Food Security and Nutrition Monitoring System (FSNMS, previously FSMS) since 2010, and other surveys including the National Baseline Households Survey (NHBS), households were classified as ‘resilient’ based on the following criteria: 1) food secure according to food consumption indicators and coping capacity; 2) no malnourished children according to anthropometric data; and 3) non-receivers of food assistance for three months before the survey. Analysis was then carried out to identify a range of ‘resilience capacities’ – absorptive, adaptive and transformative – which distinguished nonresilient from resilient households. This was done using long-term household data (FSNMS/ FSMS and others) as well as a literature review and partner inputs. Where quantitative data was available, significance tests (t-tests and chi-square) were run to establish whether differences between the resilient and non-resilient households were significant.