HIGHLIGHTS
• The current Short Rains season (October-December 2015) in the Horn of Africa is taking place during the peak phase of one of the most intense El Nino events on record. This event, declared in March 2015 has already had major consequences across the region, with extensive, severe droughts in Ethiopia.
• As the Short Rains started, El Nino influences switched to wetter than average conditions, leading to expectations of prime conditions for marginal agriculture and pastoralist livelihoods but also of possible large scale flood events. The latter had to be considered seriously since this El Nino would reach (maybe exceed) the intensity of the 1997 event, responsible for catastrophic flooding in Kenya and Somalia.
• So far, wetter than average conditions have materialized, but at levels close to the average for El Nino seasons – if considering rainfall forecasts to late December, a repeat of the 1997 event is ruled out. However, there has been more modest but locally significant river flooding in mid October in Somalia and flash floods, landslides and localized flooding in Kenya as typical of El Nino seasons.
• In Kenya these conditions should continue throughout December, as above average rainfall is forecast until early 2016, but no more flooding is expected in Somalia as little rainfall is anticipated across the country.
• Vegetation cover is at well above average levels across most of the region, leading to a recovery of previously drought affected areas and very good prospects for pastoralists. However, vegetation conditions remain poor in northeastern Kenya, due to localized, drier than average conditions. As the season comes to an end, these areas may remain a point of concern.