Emergency (IPC Phase 4) persists in Greater Upper Nile
Key Messages
The September IPC Food Security and Nutrition Analysis estimated that 2.4 million people would remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3), primarily in Unity, Upper Nile, and Jonglei States. Similarly, FEWS NET’s own analysis finds the same areas of concern. Both analyses suggest that protracted conflict has disrupted livelihoods, led to a worse economic outlook for South Sudan, constrained functioning of markets, reduced market access, and made the delivery of humanitarian assistance very difficult. All of these factors continue to lead to very severe acute food insecurity.
Staple food prices have remained very high, despite slight seasonal declines from August to September. For example, the September sorghum price in Rumbek was 109 percent higher than last year. Difficulty purchasing fuel, high transaction costs for trade, depreciation of the South Sudanese Pound (SSP) against the U.S. dollar (USD), and associated low food import volume are likely to continue due to a variety of macroeconomic drivers. This will lead to continued very high staple food prices that limit household food access.
An estimated 2.54 million people were displaced by conflict from December 2013 to the first week of November 2015. Acute food insecurity is expected to remain atypically elevated during the harvest from October through December for approximately 1.6 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), especially in Unity, Upper Nile, and Jonglei States.
Sporadic conflict has displaced households in all parts of South Sudan, even in Greater Equatoria. While Greater Equatoria is not as severely acutely food insecure as Greater Upper Nile, if sporadic conflict continues to disrupt trade and displace households, the number of households needing humanitarian assistance is likely to grow, especially as the lean season is expected to start early in March instead of May across the country.
Food insecurity is expected to deteriorate significantly from January through March in Unity, Upper Nile, and Jonglei States. Early depletion of the limited harvest, lack of access to markets, lack of access to humanitarian assistance, and lack of access to typical food and income sources will continue to make a large number of people acutely food insecure.