EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
On 15 December 2013, fighting erupted in Juba among members of the Presidential Guard, and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) subsequently split between forces loyal to the Government and those loyal to former Vice-President Riek Machar. In the days that followed, the conflict spread to the states of Greater Upper Nile (Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile) after local SPLA forces disintegrated, often along ethnic lines. Since then, the conflict has created a major protection crisis and forced more than 2.27 million people from their homes.
This report is the sixth in a series of Protection Trends papers prepared by the South Sudan Protection Cluster in close collaboration with the three sub-clusters and other protection actors.1 Recognizing that protection issues in South Sudan are numerous and complex, this paper focuses on key issues reported during the third quarter of 2015 (Q3), between 1 July and 30 September.
This period was marked by ongoing fighting in the three states of Greater Upper Nile. Despite the signing in August of the Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan, attacks were reported in the southern and central counties of Unity State and certain parts of Upper Nile State. In addition to direct threats related to hostilities, this quarter brought a further degradation of the general protection environment for civilians across the country due to a protracted economic crisis, increased food insecurity, and a crackdown on freedom of expression.
Fighting and food insecurity continued to cause internal displacement as well as refugee outflows, with 1.64 million people displaced internally and more than 633,000 fleeing to neighboring countries by the end of September, a 3 per cent increase in total displacement compared to the end of the second quarter (June). However, the net displacement rates were lower than in the previous quarter: internal displacement increased 3 per cent between Q2 and Q3 (compared to 5% between Q1 and Q2), while refugee outflow increased 6 per cent (compared to 15%). Consistent with the trend observed since the beginning of 2015, internal displacement again increased at a lower rate than refugee outflows (+3% vs. +6%). Unity and Upper Nile states continued to see high rates of displacement and the highest total number of people displaced. However, the most significant increases in relative terms between the quarters were observed in Western Bahr el Ghazal, Western Equatoria and Eastern Equatoria states.
Most new refugees fled to Uganda and Ethiopia, with a noticeable decline in the number arriving in Sudan. Families continued to be separated, although twice as many children were reunified with their parents or caregivers, and new registrations tripled compared to the second quarter. The number of children in psychological distress continued to rise (+46%), with ongoing displacement, lack of services and trauma straining the ability of both children and caregivers to remain resilient.
Sexual violence, including rape, continued to be a characteristic of the conflict, and constituted one in every four cases of incidents reported to the Gender-based Violence Information Management System (GBV IMS). Women and girls in Unity State were particularly vulnerable, with estimates that over 1,300 were raped between April and September in the context of the Government offensive in the southern counties. Women also continued to be exposed to harmful traditional practices such as child, early and forced marriage, and to resort to dangerous coping mechanisms to support their families, such as survival sex. As in the second quarter, the largest group of alleged GBV perpetrators recorded in the GBV IMS were members of armed groups, although this number fluctuated in relation to conflict dynamics: from 19 per cent of the total in April, up to 29 per cent in May, and then down to 6 per cent in September. Grave violations of children’s rights also continued despite commitments by both the Government and the Opposition. Only half as many reports of such incidents were reported to the Monitoring and Reporting Mechanism (MRM) during the third quarter compared to the first (156 vs. 324). The majority of reported violations this quarter consisted of the recruitment and use of children (27%), killings (26%), and sexual violence (19%), in line with the trend in 2015 to date. Again this quarter, most reports originated from Unity State (65%). As of the end of September, it was estimated that 15,000 to 16,000 children had been recruited since the beginning of the conflict, up from the estimated 13,000 at the end of June. No formal releases have been made by the SPLA or the SPLA-in Opposition (SPLA-IO) since the conflict began.
Hostilities and food insecurity also continued to compel civilians to flee to UNMISS Protection of Civilians (POC) sites, which hosted 184,282 IDPs by the end of September, a record number and an 80 per cent increase compared to the beginning of the year. As in the second quarter, significant increases in the Malakal (+49%) and Bentiu (+37%) POC sites amplified the severity of pre-existing protection challenges related to service delivery, security, health and congestion, while the significant reduction of IDPs in Melut (-67%) illustrated the consequences of severe insecurity in and around that site. Contrary to previous quarters, the main source of violence seemed to be armed criminality by IDPs rather than inter- and intra-communal violence or incursions by armed forces. The presence of armed elements near the sites continued to pose a protection risk for IDPs, although security incidents seem to decrease overall with the exception of Bentiu. Restrictions by SPLA forces on the freedom of movement of IDPs between the Malakal POC site and the west bank of the Nile River were particularly concerning, as were ongoing violations of the Status-of-Forces Agreement (SOFA).
In this quarter, insecurity and violence increased in areas that previously had been less directly affected by the conflict, raising the prospect of a wider breakdown of law and order. The situation in Western Equatoria State deteriorated further in the third quarter, with security incidents between Dinka SPLA soldiers and local communities in Mundri West, Maridi and Yambio displacing thousands. New flashpoints of instability emerged in Central Equatoria State, where fighting between SPLA soldiers and unknown armed groups in western Juba County displaced thousands. Armed criminality in Juba rose significantly, as did incidents of killings, banditry and ambushes on Juba’s arterial roads. The situation led to the dismissal of both state governors in mid-August, which further entrenched Equatorians’ dissatisfaction. The economic and food insecurity situations continued to deteriorate in the Bahr el Ghazals and in Warrap State, while cattle-raiding, inter-communal violence and disarmament activities continued to be major causes of deaths, insecurity and displacement in Lakes State.
Landmines and explosive remnants of war (ERW) continued to threaten thousands of communities and endanger the safety of humanitarian workers, peacekeeping forces and development actors. This quarter coincided with the end of the demining season and the shift to Quick Response Teams, which were deployed to Bentiu, Malakal, Bor and Juba to facilitate the movement of aid, IDPs and UNMISS patrols.
Despite having closed more Hazardous Areas in 2015 than in any previous year, overall progress was impeded by the creation of 1,712 new such Areas, 148 of which were found during the third quarter (9%). Restrictions on humanitarian access by road, river and air continued to hamper humanitarian activities due to deliberate bureaucratic obstructionism and insecurity, as well as bad infrastructure and poor road conditions related to the rainy season. After a brief return in early August, all humanitarian staff were withdrawn again from southern and central Unity due to hostilities. Humanitarian access into Malakal was severely restricted from the end of June until 7 August due to the refusal of the SPLA to grant flight safety assurances, causing severe shortages in fuel, food, medicine and water in the humanitarian hub and the POC site. Access into Wau Shilluk was also severely restricted by the SPLA until early August (when air assistance resumed) and early October (when river assistance resumed). Crime in Juba affected NGO staff and operations, with 49 compound robberies reported during the quarter. Illustrating the dangers associated with humanitarian work in South Sudan, nine humanitarian workers were killed during the reporting period. This brought the total recorded deaths of humanitarians between 15 December 2013 and 30 September 2015 to 36, up from 27 reported at the end of June (+33%). Many more remained missing and unaccounted for, or were victims of assault, threat, harassment, detention and abduction.
The report concludes by proposing a number of recommendations for the Government, armed forces and groups, UNMISS, the Security Council, humanitarian actors, and the donor and diplomatic community on measures that could improve the protection environment and mitigate the effects of ongoing protection threats. As the last quarter of 2015 began, measures by President Salva Kiir made it apparent that the peace agreement would not be a panacea to solve the political crisis that underlies the conflict.
Questions about the future of the POC sites are expected to become more prominent, and will require the active engagement of humanitarians to ensure that discussions are informed by protection principles.
Moving forward, justice and accountability measures will also be key to promoting reconciliation and deterring future conflict, with some positive developments on this front observed in late October. Despite recent achievements, the long road to peace has only just begun, and all parties will have to be fully engaged to ensure that South Sudanese citizens can live without fear and want.